A Storm Gathers in Britain
The warm weather of the last week has allowed me to keep the windows of my London bedroom open. Facing away from Uxbridge Road in Shepherd’s Bush, my small balcony overlooks the back gardens and courtyards of several West London homes. While shut inside throughout the first two days of the May bank holiday weekend, I’ve heard chatting and splashing from a small swimming pool. The clattering of plates and cutlery from outside diners and the smells of barbecues have wafted into my room.
On Sunday morning, however, just hours before Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to address the nation to reveal the next steps of the government’s plan in dealing with coronavirus, the mood has changed.
Grey clouds have replaced the bright blue sky. A chill wind substitutes rustling leaves as an alternative soundscape to my neighbors’ revels. No more roars of jet engines from Red Arrows VE Day flyovers. Even the birds have grown quieter, as if they sense that something is amiss.
Since Thursday, the nation’s conservative and populist press has forecast the government’s next moves with alarming consistency. The Daily Mail cheered, “Hurrah! Lockdown Freedom Beckons,” as the Daily Star dubbed May 11th, “Magic Monday”—the beginning of the lifting of restrictions that have been far less diligently followed in the UK than in other, similarly impacted European nations.
The traditional May bank holiday was moved this year from Monday to Friday to coincide with the 75th anniversary of VE Day. British citizens took advantage. In Cosham, near Portsmouth, some residents drew ire for taking to the streets during a live BBC broadcast while waving flags in celebration of the holiday.
Similarly, a Grappenhall conga line was criticized, despite participants attempting to maintain proper social distance by holding onto a rope at roughly six foot intervals.
Such behavior can hardly be unexpected based on the vague guidance of the government. From the start of the crisis in March, Johnson was reluctant to officially close non-essential businesses even while he urged Britons to stay away from pubs and restaurants. In the week leading up to official lockdown, huge events such as the Champions League final in Liverpool and the Cheltenham Festival horse races (which attracted over a quarter million visitors) seeded COVID-19 outbreaks in their localities.
As the government’s message evolved to “Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives,” ministers were left in the lurch as Health Secretary Matt Hancock, Johnson, and then his special advisor and Brexit campaign mastermind, Dominic Cummings, were stricken by the virus.
Buses in London were made free so that drivers — who were falling ill at an alarming rate — could avoid interacting with passengers as they boarded. The government stopped tracking bus use in its daily briefings on April 18th — two days before the change took effect—but anecdotally, the red buses that so fascinate Boris Johnson’s free time, have been fuller since the change.
In Shepherd’s Bush this weekend, crowds gathered outside restaurants to pick up takeaway orders and people sunbathed in public parks. The young men in the house next to mine invited their girlfriends over to play with paper airplanes in our shared courtyard.
While the government has struggled to meet PPE requirements and “ramp up” its testing protocols — the Health Secretary’s target of conducting 100,000 tests a day by the end of April was only met by mailing out thousands of take-home test kits that would not be processed for days—people have been primed for a loosening of restrictions. Through the promise of a yet-to-be tested contact tracing app, and the “mission accomplished” increase of NHS critical care capacity via the purchase of private hospital beds, the public awaits Sunday night’s announcement from the PM.
It is a critical moment for Johnson’s still-new government. Keen to deliver on the promises that swung huge swathes of the poorer regions of Northern England to the Conservative Party in the last election, Johnson wants to open up the country again and avoid even the slightest hint of an austerity that wreaked havoc on much of the UK in the wake of the financial crisis.
Easing restrictions too quickly and further increasing a death toll that has already exceeded some of the government’s early estimates has the potential to knock Johnson’s agenda of “leveling up” the country off track before it’s even begun.
Seeing the new government slogan of, “Stay Alert, Control The Virus, Save Lives,” one almost wonders if — as he famously did for a column introducing his stance on Brexit four years ago—Johnson has written two versions of tonight’s speech, and will choose to deliver whichever version he feels will do the most to bolster his popularity.
Johnson will certainly confirm that his government’s response has been “guided by the science,” at all stages of the epidemic — a science that led them to act more slowly and counter to the understanding of other authorities around the globe. The WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’s advice to “test, test, test,” was brushed off by ministers as an admonition directed at poor countries, and the UK still does not have a stance on the efficacy of mask wearing in public.
The PM will likely compare the British response to coronavirus with the spirit its undaunted people displayed during the Blitz. While the death toll has been falling, the prime minister will need to make the case that the UK is prepared to combat, contain, and control the outbreak as it exits lockdown. After all, Churchill — whom Johnson seems so eager to emulate — did not call off conflict with the Nazis as soon as Britain had defended herself from imminent invasion.
In the spirit of this weekend’s celebrations, Johnson would do well to recall the words of his would-be role model after Britain’s first major World War II victory at El Alamein.
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
As we enter this new stage in the response to coronavirus, we cannot be complacent. Even the greenest of NHS England medical director Stephen Powis’s “green shoots” can be drowned in a flood of incompetence and uncertainty. Britain must learn the right lessons from her history if she hopes to achieve an equally momentous victory for this generation.
